Hi, you're listening to Stephan Livera podcast, a show about Bitcoin. Today, for episode two hundred and fifty-six, David Bailey, CEO of BTC Media, the parent company of Bitcoin Magazine, re-joins me on the show, and we're talking about Bitcoin twenty twenty-one and just what's going on in this bull market. New from Swan Bitcoin is their private client Client services division built for the Bitcoin purchasing needs of companies and high net worth individuals around the globe. Last August, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor kicked off the re-trend of companies buying Bitcoin for their balance sheets. A flood of high-profile investors and companies have joined him, names like Paul Tudor Jones, BlackRock, Square, and Tesla. If you're thinking of buying between one and one hundred million US dollars worth of Bitcoin over the next year, email Swan's CEO personally, cory at swanbitcoin dot com, that's c o r y at SwanBitcoin dot com. He will personally make sure that you get onboarded faster than any other service in Bitcoin. The Swan team takes the time to answer all of your questions about Bitcoin and to help you develop your strategy for allocating into the best risk-reward investment in history. An opportunity like this to build and preserve legacy impacting wealth for your family or company will likely not be seen again in our lifetimes. If you want to get started immediately, visit SwanBitcoin dot com slash private or email Corey at SwanBitcoin dot com. Are you thinking about your security? Well, Unchained Capital are building Bitcoin native financial services using multi-signature, so you can take two different hardware wallets and set up a multi-signature vault for ultra secure long term storage. Unchained Capital can also guide you through this process with the Vault Concierge service, where they ship you some hardware wallets, answer your questions, and deposit a thousand dollars of Bitcoin in your vault. So use the code Livera if you're interested in that. Unchained Capital also offer business accounts for those of you, if you're a company Money moving Bitcoin to Treasury, and they also offer loans for those of you who would like to get some liquidity without spending your bitcoins. So go to Unchained Dash Capital dot com to find out more. Compass is an online marketplace which makes it easier for everyone to mine Bitcoin and enhance the Bitcoin network's security. The anti-cloud mining option, Compass helps you buy your own ASIC and secure hosting at great facilities around the world. For years, we have all heard that mining is only profitable if you're investing tons of money, but now with Compass, every- Everyone is able to tap into economies of scale and access reasonably priced hardware and cheap industrial power rates. And if you're unsure about how to get started with mining Bitcoin, Compu offers hardware and hosting bundles which eliminates the need for advanced technical knowledge and allows you to quickly get started mining Bitcoin with hardware you own. Visit them at mine with compass dot com and start mining Bitcoin today. On to the show. David, welcome back to the show. David,
TRANSMISSION SLP256
David Bailey Bitcoin 2021 and Bull Markets
with Stephan Livera
David Bailey, CEO of BTC Media (including Bitcoin Magazine) rejoins me on the show to chat about the latest: Bitcoin 2021 is coming and it’ll be huge! We chat: • Bitcoin 2021 and the guests • The feeling of live conferences • Bitcoin Magazine content • Bitcoin’s growth in recent years • Bitcoin culture
thanks for having me on.
Yeah, so, there's been a lot going on since we, last spoke on the show, formally that is. but, I'm very excited. There's a lot of things going on. We've got the Bitcoin Conference 2021 conference coming up. There's a lot of stuff happening with Bitcoin Magazine, so I'm excited to, get into that. So tell us a little bit about, what's on your mind lately.
Well,
first and a bit of a challenge, especially with COVID, especially with the politics, et cetera. So there's been some ups and downs, but I mean, it's, it's all coming together beautifully, and this is gonna be-- I mean, no one's ever have gonna have seen an event like this before. I mean, this is like the, the, you know, our experience with events is that as you get closer to the event, they ramp in terms of the number of people buying tickets, the, the quality of the speakers you get, et cetera.
Everyone leaves
it Barely handle what's going on now. I, we expect it to five x to ten x from here. I don't even, I don't even know what we're gonna do. So like our biggest, we're like trying to get ahead of the scaling challenges here. But I mean, this, this event, if we could legally sell the number of tickets, I think this could be a fifteen thousand person event. I don't think legally they're gonna let us have that many people, but the, it's getting wild.
That's awesome. And I mean, I recall from Bitcoin
two thousand Thousand? That people, that many people there?
Yeah, it was about four to five hundred people, twenty-five hundred, but it was a good sized crowd, and I mean, this-- Yeah. Yeah, that was the biggest Bitcoin only event that I think had ever, ever happened or maybe tied with the biggest, and, this is so much bigger. And I mean, like, you know, it went from us-- people that would be like headliners, that would be like our top speaker, we're now getting someone like that almost every day who's writing in. So It's pretty crazy, it's pretty crazy. So, I mean, we're excited. This is gonna be like the, the challenge that we were trying to deal with yesterday. I won't name their name, but a, a, a very famous investor that, people, people would know, value investor, we're having to find a spot where he can park his three hundred foot yacht, so that he can, he can bring the yacht in and host a party on his boat for Bitcoin whales. So, I mean, it's like, okay, those are cool, cool I'm really amped up about the conference, and I mean, it's, it's gonna be nuts.
Oh man, you're giving me major FOMO. I'm like doing my best to try and get out of here and get over there, but it's kind of like in the Australian circum-circumstance, it's like there's travel restrictions, and you have to like apply, and I don't, I honestly don't know if I'll be able to make it at this point. I'm, I'm obviously gonna do my best to try and get there myself,
but Names, you've got, Nick Sabo, Dorsey, Sailor, you know, all these people. So it's just Tony Hawk, like, how can you even, how can you not go?
We had a, a I'm trying to be careful saying names 'cause if a lot of people listen to your podcast, I don't want to offend anybody who's listening. but we had someone who's one of the highest ranking officials in government who want, who i, i, is agreed to speak. His people were trying to negotiate a keynote for them, and we're like, "Look, we like the guy, he's, he's doing cool stuff, but I'm sorry, like, that's just, we have a more important-- like, we have other people that we have to have keynotes, we can't make one happen for you." And they're like, "Okay, it's okay, we'll be on the panel." And this is like one of the biggest, you know, government officials in the
So tell us a little bit about, now for listeners who haven't been to these Bitcoin conferences, one really cool thing is actually make sure you turn up a little bit early because there will be pre-events, some of them official, some of them unofficial, and it's just a good opportunity to just hang out and meet with a whole bunch of Bitcoin people who you might have interacted with on Twitter before, but you've never met in person. So can you tell us, David, a little bit about what you're thinking in terms of pre-events and what, what's the situation there?
Yeah, We're coordinating with partners now. We just announced the Miami move about three weeks ago or so, so a lot of people are trying to figure out where to m-how to move their events from what they were expecting to do in LA to Miami. there's gonna be a mining specific event. We talked to a partner the other day that wants to have a Bitcoin for sex workers event, educating sex workers on how to use Bitcoin. I mean, it's the whole spectrum of who makes up the Bitcoin community Everything from the libertarian side to the, let's say shady anarchist side to the venture capital side to the, you know, Larry Summers and Goldman Sachs side, like it's, it's the whole spectrum. So, yeah, I, I expect that there's gonna be twenty, thirty different satellite events happening around the conference. for the conference itself, we have kind of two different types of tickets. one is general admission, so it's like the two main days of the The conference, plus an after party, and then we have what we are calling the whale pass, which is, for basically, it's like the investor ticket, and we have an extra day for whales that wanna come in and find investment opportunities, and, you know, the whales are also subsidizing the conference for everyone too, so we're, very appreciative of all the, the Bitcoin whales out there. so, gonna be awesome opportunity, hopefully to get some more hedge funds and institutional, funds deploying major dollars and, you know, we're trying to make sure that they get a taste of the Bitcoin counterculture and know what we're all about. Like, we don't, we're not trying to make Bitcoin anything other than what it is, and, you know, we're not gonna put a suit and tie on Bitcoin just 'cause you're a hedge fund. It's like, no, this is the Bitcoin counterculture. You, you come to Become a holder if you want, but like, you know, you have to kind of take the whole, the whole project and the whole community if you wanna be part of it.
Right. And I think it's really fascinating how, as this thing has grown up so much, and I know you were around in the early days, it's grown up so much now that there are different sub-groups, if you will, there are almost different tribes inside the Bitcoin world, you know, and that there's, it's not, it's not what it was in, you know, the legendary twenty thirteen days.
It, you know, that was kind of the whole ethos of why we did Bitcoin twenty nineteen is like, 'cause the tribalization had gotten to the point where the groups just didn't talk to each other very much, and it's like, okay, we're all passionate about the same thing. If we can bring everyone together in the right environment There can be that kind of cross-pollination going on, and so, I, I think, a-- especially as Bitcoin's price goes up, you know, the ability for Bitcoin to not pretend to be something other than it is, it's just like, it, it is what it is, what it is, it's a trillion dollar asset class, it's the biggest movement happening in the world, you can be a part of it or you don't have Be a part of it, but, that kind of confidence that comes with the community, I think, is really like letting people, what's the word, peacock, Reagan, whatever they call it. So, Yeah, and, and, you know, the one thing that I'm really, I, I'm sad that we're gonna miss from this year's conference is like, in twenty nineteen, we had a huge contingent from the Chinese Bitcoin community, we had a huge contingent from the South American Bitcoin community. I think we'll have still a lot of people from the South American Bitcoin community, but the China community, it's like, it's, it's a nightmare, right now Trying to figure out all the travel restrictions. And so, yeah, so, you know, what I love about Bitcoin so much is that there is a-- Bitcoin naturally self-filters for the type of people that are interested in it. And so, you know, if you're living anywhere in the world and you're passionate about Bitcoin, there's something that attracted it to, you to it that- That you share in common with someone else in the community that maybe has completely different life circumstances. And so, you know, it's, it's cool to meet somebody that you think you share nothing in common with or very few things in common, but like you have this instant kind of, connection. That's, that's actually a very deep connection, and, you know, we, we've been able to kind of make friendships with people all around the world because of this kind of shared passion for Bitcoin, and I- I hope at Bitcoin 2022, that's gonna be back on display, but for 2021, it's gonna be probably heavy, heavy North American.
Gotcha. Just from a travel and restrictions point of view, unfortunately, that's kind of the way it might be. And, you know, yeah, it's a real shame, but hopefully, things open up more and people can start traveling safely and all of that.
I will say that, you know, I can't name the company yet, but a, a household brand name company that everyone listening this is partnering with us to bring like the best live stream experience possible for people around the world who will be watching. So, we'll have like a rolling camera team, we'll have, you know, a, a dedicated live stream stage, like we will, really try to make a, a top quality, experience for people around the world who just can't be there in per-in person, and, and we'll miss you, but- But there's always twenty
twenty two. Yeah, and I, I would say as well, even from my own perspective, when you go in person to these events, it is a huge deal because the, I guess it's hard to explain and put it into words, but it's just like the energy you get from just like meeting people in real life and actually hanging out with some of these Bitcoin people, like who you might have seen online or you might have, maybe you've heard them on a podcast, but you've never met them. Or maybe even from my perspective, I might have interviewed them, but Experience if you can go in person, so that I would really encourage people who are, you know, able to go, definitely do.
Well, and, and, you know, we're, we really try hard to create some awesome activations. So like one thing we'll have this year, we've, we've had this already done for a year and a half, and so we're very eager to see it come to, to fruition. But, Tony Hawk will be there, and we have a half pipe that we're building for him to skateboard on with some of his, like, I think
and like literally just off to the left, Tony Hawk will be just shredding on a halfpipe, you know? And like, we're trying to find sumo wrestlers that we can bring in. you know, we're trying to figure out how we can get a swimming pool put on the back of like an eighteen-wheeler, like Like it's, it's not just like a intellectual experience, it's a little bit of like the smell, the sights, the sounds, you know? Yeah. Yeah. It's the full, the full Monty. And I
think one thing I enjoyed as well, even in the twenty nineteen conference, is you had some of these, gaming machines, and you were using, you had Lightning, so I think OpenNode had done like a collaboration to set up so you can have like these little pinball machines and a whole bunch of other gaming machines, and you would pay with Lightning, Lightning today is still early, but even then, it was really early. So you kind of, yeah, you know, and, and like I think you literally paid one sat just to, you know, on Lightning just to kind of, yeah, have an experience, right? But, I think it's, yeah,
we're trying to take that to the next level this year too, it's, you know, a lot of, a lot of vendors to be coordinated, so it's, it's more challenging this time around, but, yeah, I mean, one of the things we want people to leave the conference with is to be inspired about what can be done with Bitcoin and to say, "Hey, like, that was cool, but I can do it better," and like, we want people to walk away and like, have their next startup idea or the next, like, garage project that they're working on to spring out of this. And so,
for us. Yeah, so I'm actually curious then as well, from a, I guess, Bitcoin and the different narratives that exist, right? You got, you know, obviously the Michael Saylor corporate treasury style, you got this kind of, it, you know, maybe the individual, the sovereign individual aspect of it. You've got this idea of Bitcoin as f u money, right? I wanna be able to spend it whenever I want and you can't stop me. So I guess, how do you see those? And I guess what's your view over that, over this last,
you So far as kind of three different tracks of content, Bitcoin the movement, Bitcoin the technology, and, and Bitcoin the asset. And so, you know, those are three very different, Prospects. You know, I will say, like, the team had a pretty big debate the other day about, what exactly is, Bitcoin, Bitcoin relevant? What does that mean? what does Bitcoin only even mean? there are projects out there right now like RinBTC, Wrapped Bitcoin, you know, there are, are people that are trying to create kind of Ethereum-based smart contracts that you can leverage your Bitcoin within. Is that Bitcoin relevant? You know, or, or is that, is that, where exactly is the line drawn between? What it is and isn't part of the Bitcoin ecosystem and protocol. So it's a tough question, I don't, I don't think we have an exact answer, but it's been interesting to see how these things start blending together, like especially in the Ethereum community right now with DeFi, like the technology and the asset have, have, are, are blended so tightly together, it's pretty interesting.
Yeah, gotcha. So in terms of the different, tracks then, are they gonna be, like, is there gonna be like a main stage and then kind of like sideshow, or Tech trackle, what's going on with that?
Exactly. Yeah, yeah. And, and what we're trying to work right now is also like what type of breakout spaces will we have? you know, we, we don't have a hackathon this year, which we're pretty disappointed about. You know, we don't have- There are a couple things that we wish we had if we had had more time to find like, the exact venue, but for us, like, having an in-person event was the priority and just executing and making it happen. you know, we, we have right now- Two different stages, a live stream stage and then the content for what's called the deep, which is where whale passes get you access to. So the investor, investor com- Content, really startup pitches, product pitches about like, hey, take your money and literally deploy it into this. so that's how we're, we're breaking it up. I think we've only kind of formalized maybe a third of the content so far, but we're, we're right in the throes of it.
Yeah, and I'm sure a lot of it, as you said, a lot of it just kind of comes together at the last minute, so then you kind of have to quickly arrange things and get them into a presentable format.
One thing I'm really I mean, we had, we had the, the smaller stage at twenty nineteen where it was like, all user submitted content. So you had like a, a pitch of what you wanted to talk about, and we were selecting the most interesting topics as we wanted to surface new projects. This year, it feels a little bit more Hollywood, and I don't like, you know, it's like, oh, you know, Michael Sailor speaking, he's a really big deal, we need to get him involved, he has noteworthy things to say. But I, like, I liked surfacing interesting ideas from people you've never heard of, so we gotta figure out how to, how to work that back in. Like the, Brandon Quintum did his presentation on Bitcoin as mycelium, now that's a, I think a huge concept a lot of people like appreciate, but at that time it wasn't. we had Nick Bhatia do, risk-free, Great, which at that time was a pretty niche topic. So, yeah, we got a lot of work to do, we got a lot of work to do.
Yeah, and even, e-e-even then the challenge also is kind of like people's attention will naturally go towards the big names, right? Like if Michael Saylor or Jack Dorsey are speaking, like, you know, ninety-five percent of people are gonna go for that, so you kinda have to balance things out in some way, but,
we, we really don't feel like this is our conference And so, you know, after this year, when there's like some breathing room, we're gonna have to assess about how do we do content going forward, 'cause it, it-- we don't want it to be a popularity contest, you know? It's like, this is, this is about the ideas and it's about builders, it's about inventors. So, you know, we gotta really surface the great ideas and make sure that that doesn't get lost.
Yeah. And actually, that's probably a good spot to chat a little bit about, the content strategy with Bitcoin Magazine. Can you tell us a little bit? I, I know the, the strategy has perhaps shifted a little, and you're kind of doing more, maybe in the podcast direction and live streams and things like that. So what's the, the approach nowadays with Bitcoin Magazine?
Yeah. So, you know, when was the last time we talked? When was the, the last time I was on the podcast?
Oh, it would have been before 201
When we, when we made the decision to go all in on Bitcoin, part of that decision also was, you know, we're really gonna invest into bringing Bitcoin Magazine back to full greatness, and we're gonna also take our entire corporate treasury and put it all in Bitcoin and just yolo. And, I think both of those things have played out really nicely since the last time I was on your podcast. CK, Christian, the one and only Christian Corolis, is, now the, Product manager, and really business manager for, for Bitcoin Magazine, and he's just taken it to the next level. I'm, I'm, he's very passionate, super hard worker, and like, he loves Bitcoin. And, you know, we have a rule at the company, everyone has to be a Bitcoiner who works here now, so it's like live, breathe, eat, sleep Bitcoin twenty four seven, three sixty five, and, and I think CK really embodies that, he's brought that attitude and, you know, our, the amount of content we've been creating has gone up a lot, you know, we're, we've been very active in the Taproot activation discussion and, and trying to further that, that dialogue, We have someone, Joe Rogers, who has come onto our team to, to lead community. Nick Cantmine on Twitter, who now leads our social for us, and, and we're- I signed like three new employment agreements in the past, you know, two days for, new hires at Bitcoin Magazine. So we're-- that team just keeps growing and, you know, we want Bitcoin Magazine to be the number one, most influential-- and influential isn't the right word, like the platform to enable the Bitcoin community to discuss the important topics of the day. Like we want, we want to give Bitcoin a true home, go at it, and- I think the energy that we've brought the past six months has really kind of shown a taste of what's to come, but the next six months is gonna be even better. I mean, I like, it's no longer will there be a non Bitcoin only media publication that is, number one in our, in our industry.
Yeah, and that's, that's great. And I mean, even for me, I've obviously I've collaborated with you guys and the team over the years, and, I had the opportunity to do an op-ed, at the From my perspective, so, certainly that was really good, and I, I think that's really great, really great job that you and the team are doing in terms of kind of promoting Bitcoin, and that's, that's important.
I wanna be clear that I deserve no credit in any of this. It's really like our hardcore team of Bitcoiners making it happen. You know, the, the, the one, you know, we have a several different goals at Bitcoin Magazine. One thing that we have coming out soon is, really a revamped tutorials on how to get Now, we're working on getting together like a flood-busting dedicated, resource of like every piece of bullshit news you hear we have to take down, like Bitcoin isn't inefficient, for example, or, you know, Tether isn't what's pumping the Bitcoin price. and hyperbitcoinization, I think, you know, we talked about this maybe a little bit last time I was on the podcast, but the price of Bitcoin is gonna go to two hundred and fifty, three hundred and fifty thousand dollars this year, and when we- When we get there, you know, and we're at a ten trillion dollar market cap, people are gonna start asking the question, "Where do we go from here?" Like, you know, another ten x event, and now we're as big as the public equity market. How much bigger can Bitcoin go? And the only answer to that question is really the ideological discussion of like hyperbitcoinization, and it can go a lot, lot, lot higher. So, I, I think that there's very few resources out there on the web about what that vision could look like, what that universe looks Ten years from now, and, you know, we wanna invest heavily into content around that topic, no matter how radical and crazy it sounds or dumb it sounds, like we just wanna like get people's creative juices and intellectual juices flowing.
Yeah, that's a really interesting theme, and I think for those of us who come from a libertarian perspective, as I know you're similar to me there, that we kind of see it as like, it's challenging central banks and so on, but again, people have their own different views on it. But, I think it's, it's hard What do-- how big do we actually think this thing goes, right? I mean, people say, okay, people point back to the Hal Finney number from two thousand and ten where he was saying, "Look, it could be ten million dollars in purchasing power terms," and, you know, then there are people who are out there saying it'll be more than that.
It's one twenty-one millionth of all things. Like that's, that, that's the ultimate price of a Bitcoin. And, you know, the challenge is then the question is like, "Well, what Market cap, where all it does is visualize all the things that exist. Like there's this many cows on the world, and if you own a Bitcoin, you're one twenty-one millionth of all the cows is this many cows. Like, I think people would be shocked by how these numbers would be like, "Wow, I'd have seventy thousand cows, like I'd have, you know, two hundred thousand acres of land." So, I, you know, I think it gets, it gets really, it gets really wild, and I think it also gets wild from the standpoint of, of from the, from the standpoint of, of like things like, Bitcoin mining, the amount of, the amount of wealth that is basically transferred from the Bitcoin network to Bitcoin miners, that's like direct in, in investment into the production capacity or the, the hard sciences that enable mining to happen. Like if you look at the cost inputs of mining, it's like energy or it's, chip fabrication or it's data center building. Okay, well, you know, basically- Basically, if, if mining's eating one percent or two percent of the value of the network per year, that's just transferring value to who can do those things the best. and I think that that will have a transformational effect on, what people go to school to learn, what, how quickly the pace of science happens across our entire, globe. you know, if you think about how quickly, mining caught up with Intel and, and Taiwan semiconductors on going from GPU mining to the, you know, sixty-four nanometer, ASICs to like seven nanometer ASICs, that timeline was, I mean, seven years, it was insane. What if that was like applied equally across all technology globally? Like we would just be living in a radically transforming times. And so, I don't know, I think there's a lot of societal benefits that are unseen, that unless you really start exploring the idea and you start thinking from the first principle of, okay, Bitcoin is all that exists. It's just hard to conceptualize, it's hard to conceptualize.
Yeah, and I guess the other interesting thing is the journey getting there, because now it seems like things are advancing in ways that enable people to use the Fiat system to their advantage. Right? An example is, you know, people like Michael Saylor, issuing debt to buy Bitcoin, doing the, the Pierre Rochard speculative attack that he wrote about in twenty fourteen, or another example would be people talking about how miners-- So people talk about, "Oh, okay, miners have to sell coins." Coins to pay their expenses, but then the next level now is you're hearing miners who are saying, "No, hold on, I actually just get more debt, and I use that to pay my expenses so that I can keep hodling the coins." So I guess these are all factors where it's, it's really gonna start ramping up.
Yeah, I mean, how long before, Nvidia is a just a Bitcoin mining company or, you know, Solar City, is just a Bitcoin mining, you know, like there's gonna be huge companies that are just going to, Significantly increased the amount of investment happening in those areas. Like, I, I'm surprised that we don't have like a forge that's been built yet, like a, a direct like Intel competitor specifically for Bitcoin mining chips. Like, I think we'll get there before long just because of how many billions now are going into, to, fabricating new chips, but, that's been one of the biggest constraints of like forge time for people to be able to tap out a, a new line of smaller chips. As soon as Bitcoiners control those things, we're unleashed. We're unleashed, so yeah, it's gonna be awesome.
Yeah, and, so in terms of on-ramps for people, I think that's also an interesting area as well, because, you know, obviously we've got the whole dollar-cost averaging stuff, and we've got even, I mean, the, the sats back kind of companies, right? The Lolly and the Folds of the world, that are kind of offering this new way for people who maybe they're not fully sold on Bitcoin itself, but they're happy to just start with some Bitcoin rewards and maybe that That's their, that's their stepping stone before they come down the full rabbit hole and become a full orange-pilled bitcoiner. So, what do you see as like on-ramps and very viable on-ramps in this next, you know, year or so?
Well, the number one on-ramp for people long term is their capacity to earn Bitcoin. I mean, I, I'm a true believer that like people's labor is, that's their number one ability, that's the number one on-ramp. And so if we can get people to start paying people for creating value in Bitcoin You know, there are no artificial constraints. As long as we define the on-ramps in our system as the u-using the banking system to get involved, you're gonna, you're-- we're shutting out over half the user base of, of what's gonna use Bitcoin. You know, I, I, I also think like, you know, when I joined, when I got involved in Bitcoin, I was a young, like, I was a libertarian, I was a young kid, but I was, you know, I still was like a normal person from the standpoint of like, Bitcoin's high risk percent or five percent or ten percent of my money in Bitcoin. Well, as time has gone on and I've gotten more and more comfortable and confident, you know, I've lost complete confidence in the legacy system. I mean, I look at that as like, why would anyone hold political money when they can hold math-based money? I mean, I don't even understand, especially with COVID times and the insanity we've seen in the past three or four years. So, you know, I'm, I'm kind of looking for this developing trend here of people that enter into the Bitcoin ecosystem, in Bitcoin, they live their entire lives inside of Bitcoin and they never exit the system. And so like now I have ninety-five percent plus of my net worth in Bitcoin. I'm, I'm looking to get the other five percent into Bitcoin, and I'm looking for financial products that allow me to barely touch the financial system in only like the limited number of cases I need to, but I never wanna exit from the system. And so, you know, I take my payment, people owe me money, they pay me in Bitcoin. I take my, income from the business, pay me in Bitcoin And I think that, like, that you have to be pretty far down the rabbit hole to be there, but every year we go, the number of people that are like that far deep down the rabbit hole grows, I think exponentially. Like, I think, like, you know, maybe a few years ago there was ten thousand people like that Now there's probably a hundred thousand people like that. One or two years from now, there'll be a million people like that, and those are the people that are really, I think, treading the path for all people to follow. Like, this is how to completely divest yourself from the legacy financial system and be able to live a normal life. And as more and more people live entirely inside of Bitcoin, the onramps become less important because any economic activity that happens with any of those people that are a hundred percent all in in Bitcoin, it happens in Bitcoin. Bitcoin terms. You want me to invest into your startup? I'm gonna write the investment in Bitcoin. You want, you know, to work at our company? Okay, well, we're gonna pay you in, you know, maybe a dollar-denominated sum in Bitcoin. And so I think that those onramps are just gonna become more and more sizable. I mean, especially when you have companies like, let's say, if, if Tesla, gets far enough down this path and they have ten thousand employees that overnight, that they wanna start paying their salaries in Bitcoin, I think those
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The reasons you hear from people about why they don't do, let's say, payroll in Bitcoin are the same reasons that you heard from people about why they don't accept Bitcoin at their store five years ago. And, you know, at this point in time, there's literally no reason not to accept Bitcoin, unless maybe like you're worried about government intimidation against you or, or something like that. But other than that, there's no reason why you shouldn't be accepting it. but it's just not a high enough priority for people. The prioritization That into your stack, which takes one hour of time from an engineer, it only shows up when all of a sudden there's demand. And so when the price starts going up, now it's a priority for everyone. We just talked to a Fortune 500 company that last week that's about to announce that they're accepting Bitcoin, was not a priority for them until Elon Musk said he was doing it, and then they're like, "Whoa, we gotta do it." So, you know, I think, prioritization follows the price, and, you know, I think
For not doing payroll in Bitcoin,
zero. Yeah, that's really fascinating. but yeah, what you were saying there is very fascinating because I think it, it's all just part of the journey, right? Obviously, long timers who've been in, your net worth is basically, you're close to a hundred percent in Bitcoin, but it's hard for people who are coming from a more fiat mindset where they, you know, still need the access to the fiat rails and they're not kind of to that level of thinking about their net worth in Bitcoin terms that they still kind of need that tether to No pun intended, you know, to the financial Fiat system.
Yeah, yeah. With new oner spousings, it sounds insane to anyone who hasn't had ten years of going through it and then like the, the, the shift in your mind that comes. But- eventually, as long as you stay part of the community, you'll get there. And, you know, I think when you think of Bitcoin as a hundred-year revolution, you realize that like, you know, this whole Bitcoin experiment, it doesn't even start until Bitcoin is no longer traded for fiat currency. Like That's the beginning of the experiment when you can't buy Bitcoin with fiat currency anymore. And so, you know, I think maybe the next ten years, it's really gonna matter the fidelities and the cash apps and the coin bases, they're gonna matter. But, I think, you know, when we get to a point where there's a billion plus people around the world using Bitcoin in a semi-regular frequency, it's gonna be so common for business transactions to happen natively in Bitcoin assets that, like- That's gonna be the economic activity. And then, in terms of the inducement of people to care and prioritize, if there's a whole universe of economic activity going on that you can't be a part of unless you adopt the technology, you're gonna adopt it. It's like, that's the reason a lot of people joined the internet. There was all this stuff happening on the internet, and it's like, if you wanna be a part of it, you gotta get online. So, you know, I think we're just now getting to that point when we're at a trillion dollar asset class Joining in Niagara
Falls. This stuff is like finger in the air stuff, right? But as an example, people have said, you know, over a hundred million people in the world hold some form of Bitcoin. Now maybe some of them have, and some of those might be very shallow level, in terms of their kind of mental investment in understanding and learning about Bitcoin. And then you go down a few more levels and you kind of get to, what would you say are the kind of relative numbers today if you kind of just, you know, finger in the air said,
That kind of larger, you know, call it a hundred million people who hold, who hold some exposure to Bitcoin or some--
Yeah, I, I think Coinbase kind of revealed some of those numbers today a little bit. I think they said that they have fifty million active people who are customers who have KYC'd, and they have two point one million, monthly active users that are, that are buying every month. I think that that probably means, if I had to guess, Coinbase has like ten percent plus market share, fifteen percent market share of- Of global, Bitcoin activity, so that probably means that there's twenty million monthly active of Bitcoiners, and I'd probably put them in the camp of people who call themselves Bitcoiners if you're buying Bitcoin every month. You know, you're, you're, you're starting down that path. and then I think that probably ten percent of that crowd is like really hardcore Bitcoin Like, you know, like they're in the, they're in the divesting everything but Bitcoin, mode. So probably one or two million, but to put that into context, there was probably only one to two million Bitcoiners, in twenty fifteen, you know, I mean, in, in twenty fourteen. So that's what, seven years ago. So, you know, we're seven years away from there being a hundred million people that are a hundred percent all in on Bitcoin and, like, you know, use it every day in their daily life Lives. The revolution, I mean, that's, that's a lot of people. I mean, that's a lot of people. So I think we're, we're, we're two or three bubbles away from hyperbitcoinization, like, like being here. And as more and more people go into that all in on Bitcoin camp, the carrying cost of the bullshit from the legacy system is spread across fewer and fewer users. And so, you know, if they're hyper-inflating, if a country's hyper-inflating their currency and they lose half of their users to Bitcoin, well, Now being carried by the half that haven't, haven't left yet. So, I think that this accelerates, I mean, e-each bubble accelerates this, this phenomenon and, and integration into our daily society and life, faster and faster, I think
So do you see it then, like what in your view would be an indicator that we're in a quote-unquote final cycle and that we are actually just not gonna have a big eighty percent drop and actually this time maybe it'll be like little dips on the way up? What do you, in your mind, how would you try to distinguish?
I think we're near, we're, we're close to the end, when, you have, let's say, one of the top- Top six or seven central banks in the, in the world, publicly buying Bitcoin. When, when, when you have like, let's say, the ECB or the Federal Reserve, or, I'm forget-- blanking on, England's, Bank of England. When you have them publicly buying Bitcoin, all credibility is lost from the, from the monetary system, which, I mean, to the s-- people who are "Quote insiders to our financial system, the credibility is already shot." But I think that like it becomes glaringly obvious to everyone when a central bank is printing money and divesting it quickly to buy a digital asset. We're a ways from there. It's not, it's not gonna happen tomorrow. It's not gonna happen in this bubble for sure. But, you know, I think, I think- We're not that far. The game theory kicks in fast. I mean, you got the Iranian central bank buying Bitcoin, you have the Venezuelan central bank buying Bitcoin. I bet it won't be long before the Turkish central bank is buying Bitcoin. and like, you know, it only takes probably- You know, ten or twenty of these people like buying Bitcoin before every central bank's like, "Eeew
People are gonna have a hard time explaining why Bitcoin is worth more than all public equities and all commercial real estate in the world. Like, how do you explain that? That math doesn't make sense, unless there's a lot more cash floating around in, in different assets and different, in different countries than is recognized today. I think that's probably the case.
Yeah, and arguably Bitcoin sucks a bit of the value out of some of these overinflated asset classes. Let's say people are using property as their store of value Value on, you know, in various countries around the world, you know, even here in Australia, there's a massive property cult. It's all about buying property, you gotta buy property, if you don't hold property, you're a loser or whatever. Whereas those of us in the Bitcoin world are more like, no, we actually see Bitcoin as a better long-term store of value, so you need to be holding Bitcoin instead. so, yeah, but I think it's an interesting point you make around, you know, you know, the cycles of it and potentially it's twenty
twenty-five I'm very bullish on Starlink, from SpaceX, the global satellite-based telecommunication system. That is such an important piece of infrastructure in terms of allowing people around the world to bypass the, the gate that's placed on telecommunications companies in kind of, you know, crackpot countries around the world. And so, when anyone has access to a free and open internet and they have access to free and open money, it's just gonna happen faster and faster and faster. So, I don't know. And, you know, there's the, the saying like, "He who controls the money controls the world," and it's like, Bitcoiners now control the money, like we are the money,
and now- It's that captain meme. Look at me, look at me.
Yeah, exactly, yeah. So, like, I actually see this kind of, corruption, and I, and I mean that in a positive way, of the political system actually happening where, like- Bitcoiners might, might take control of the political realm, in a way that I think a lot of people didn't see coming. Like they saw, like, "Oh, there's gonna be this big political crackdown." And it's like, I don't know, I mean, if we have the money, maybe the politicians are like super eager to please the Bitcoin community. So yeah, I mean,
yeah, we'll see. Speaking of politicians, how's, how's things been with, is it Francis Suarez, the Miami mayor? I think that's
Of the Bitcoin scene, Bitcoin community.
Yeah, so I, I wanna, I wanna give him a shout out as one of the political leaders in the United States who's lea- leaning, truly leaning the most, the most forward on Bitcoin. And there's a lot of people who are gonna be trying to copy what he's doing in Miami, but he's really put his neck out there. There are people who are trying to, trip him up or to, turn it into a liability for him, and, he has so- So much, energy and passion on the topic that it's just like he's just, plowing right through them like a true toxic maximalist. So, the, like, I just massive shout out to him. It was a nightmare dealing with the state of California and with the city of Los Angeles, a nightmare. And he has shown incredible leadership in making this happen. you know, he was on a call, we were on a call with him yesterday, and, and, he's like, "This is..." This is a strategic priority for the city of Miami, and this, event must happen here. We, anything that has to-- any hurdles that we have, we had, we had a tiny hurdle we had to deal with. Any hurdles that come along, like this hurdle will be quashed, and this is like the most important thing happening in Miami. And I, and I also wanna give a shout out to Ron DeSantis' office, also, the governor of Florida, who's been, very, supportive. but no, we were-- so we were person's name, but the owner of the venue, that the conference will be at was on the call with us, and he's a, you know, pow- very, very powerful person, and, he's big on blockchain, not Bitcoin. And so Mayor, Mayor Suarez was like, "We forgive him that he's, you know, he hasn't really understand what, doesn't understand what's happening here, but he'll learn, and he's gonna come to the conference, and he'll be a Bitcoiner by the time this is all said and done." It's like, "Oh, hell yeah!" Like, so, you know, Mayor Suarez, if he runs for president of the United States, he's got my vote.
That's awesome, man. That's great to
Really, you look at some of these other examples where they're very saying, "Yeah, come, come here, we want you here," kind of thing. So, you know, I think it's a good example.
I can't, I feel like I'm, I'm, I'm normally so transparent with everything, but your, your podcast has gotten so big, I know that if I, you know, I don't wanna, I don't wanna screw myself over, but- In the past, in the past, couple weeks, we've had, multiple chiefs of staffs of senators, reaching out, you know, the politicians are coming around wanting donations from the Bitcoin community, wanting to, wanting to build a Bitcoin lobby, and, you know, I, I think that it's actually gonna be a much more, I don't know, a, a, a minimal setup than people, than people think maybe, so we'll see, we'll see.
Yeah, it seems To me, like, I mean, the main things, at least, again, so it's a big world out there, there's, you know, whatever, two hundred countries, obviously, but obviously the US is a very important one. But, it seems from my perspective, at least as I kind of talk to people in the industry and stuff, it seems like the most concern is around things like, okay, fine, AML, KYC, sanctions, you know, some of that stuff. but other, other than that, it seems more like governments are actually more
I know it's incredible, and then they're like, you know, eager to launch their own central bank coins that's just gonna like accelerate the onramps. We talk about onramps, making where everyone gets paid a digital US dollar, and they're one click away from, from dumping that and buying Bitcoin with it, you've just saved the biggest hurdle for us. So, yeah, I, yeah,
I don't know, I'm very bullish. David, I'm also curious on your thoughts on any of the, you know, peer-to-peer markets
whole world of Bitcoin.
Well, I, you know, we, I think we talked about a little bit earlier, but like, tr-what are they trading into? You know, peer-to-peer trading into fiat currency pairs?
Yeah, just, you know, a-as, as ways for people who wanna, let's say, buy Bitcoin peer-to-peer, you know, if they wanna, if they're peer-to-peer traders and things like that, do you kind of see a, a role for that part of the ecosystem as well?
Well, for sure. I mean, I- I mean, that's just person to person economic activity, and I'm, I'm very bullish on that, but I'm bearish on people trading fiat for Bitcoin, or better said, trading Bitcoin for fiat long term. And, so I'm more, I'm more interested in like, what does the Chicago Mercantile Exchange of Bitcoin look like? Like, where, where can I swap out my, my barrels of oil or my bales of hay or my, you know, true, investment grade commodities, for, for Bitcoin, peer to peer. That's what I wanna see.
Yeah. So I guess your view then, in some ways, it's like, obviously for now, you know, as much as you and I are hardcore Bitcoin people, there are people who still have fiat and they still need to get out of fiat and into Bitcoin, obviously. But I think maybe your view then is that you'll see a lot more people earning Bitcoin as opposed to like directly buying it.
Exactly. Yeah. I mean, I mean, think about, the, the Dollars people have in their bank accounts. How many of those dollars did they get by selling assets that they own to get the dollars versus the, the amount of dollars they get from earning them from their employer? Like ninety-nine percent comes from, from actual earned income. So, you know, I, I like what I'm really bullish on seeing is like, I want Iran to start selling their sanctioned oil for Bitcoin, natively. Like that's a Bitcoin-only market, it's for a commodity, you know, like, like that, that's the type of activity That, you know, Venezuela, if you want to start selling your oil reserves for Bitcoin, that I think really start building commodity markets that are authentic and that, help-- those are the things that will help in time bring down the volatility of Bitcoin.
all right, how about now the technology aspects of Bitcoin, you know, the developments in, in Bitcoin. Obviously, Taproot is a big feature here, but yeah, what, what kind of things are you looking forward to on that front in, in a, in a Bitcoin technology point of view?
Yeah, so I to happen, scalability is still a massive challenge. I think, I think Lightning has-- I'm a little bit disappointed in the, the pace at which it has been commercialized by businesses in the ecosystem. Yeah, I, I won't, I won't share any, any breaking bad news or anything, but the, the, I, you know, I think every company needs to take on the responsibility of pushing the boundaries of Bitcoin, and like that's a critical thing that needs to happen because we can't support a hundred million daily active Bitcoin- Bitcoin users right now, not even close. And like, you know, I think the system has the right kind of incentivization models that where when fees go astronomical, you'll see a lot more progress made a lot more quickly, but, we need to be stress testing, the system. I, I will say the lending side of what's been going on, where you can, you know, collateralize your Bitcoin and borrow against them, that has been incredibly useful, for people to be able to, do one transaction and be able to get a lot of, of purchasing power for investments, et cetera. I, you know, I don't know what's going on in the, in the secondary markets with rehypothecation, and I think that that could be a challenge we see come up, but I think lending has actually brought taken a
I'm blanking on his name, RGB, the color coins implementation, were started as on top of Bitcoin, Jocko's project. I think that that could be very cool. you know, a-again, I know that it's, it's, not kosher to, to, to, you know, talk DeFi and Ethereum, especially with all the bullshit that's there, but there are cool elements to what's going on, and I think, like this NFT, action Hyper speculative and, you know, a lot of people are gonna be wrecked. But also authentically, if you go on the Nifty Gateway, like some of these tokens, like I saw one the other day that, that's, NFT, a, a famous artist, crossed with Deadmau5, made a custom, like, beats to the, to the art, and it's like, that's like a cool digital sculpture that's actually unique. That can be done on Bitcoin. So, you know, I want us to get to the point where like the original On top of Bitcoin, your, your Pepe cash. And so, you know, there's a project out there, I think called Scarcity, that's trying to bring NFTs to Bitcoin, but let's get back to stress testing the system. Can we do NFTs on top of Lightning Network? can we do some of these experimental things that bring a, a culture of experimentation? You know, layer one has ossified, but like layer two and layer three, the-- I mean, there's a lot of places for people to move fast and So, I hope we, we see a lot more of that this year. I will say that just from the conference perspective, over the past, you know, let's say two years, the pace at which new businesses are, being created right now in Bitcoin that are reaching out to us has dramatically increased. Like, I mean, I would say we've probably had twenty businesses that haven't launched yet, maybe thirty businesses that haven't launched yet that have reached out to us about, about the conference, which, you know, I don't even know if there was thirty new businesses Bitcoin businesses of significant size that were started in all of, in all of twenty nineteen. So, that's the type of kind of rapid increase in innovation that I, I hope continues to happen and it needs to happen if we're gonna be ready for our hyperbitcoinization moment.
Right. Yeah. And, so yeah, I mean, look, personally, I'm not as into the whole NFT thing, whatever, but, you know, whatever, people gonna find ways to, you know, do things on side chains and on Lightning, you know, that's cool. I mean, The most interesting part is obviously the Sound Money part, which I'm sure you also care too. so I, I'm-
It doesn't work without the Sound Money part. That's, that's the whole, the whole core crux of it. But like, once you have Sound Money, magic can be made to happen, and I wanna see people make magic, you know? So
Yeah, yeah, yeah. you mentioned also the lending aspect of it as well, and I think that seems to be an interesting trend as well, because people are talking about this idea of, "Oh Sponsors who, you know, Unchained Capital offer this as a service and Hoddle Hoddle lend offer that, so just for listeners, but I think that's an interesting area as well because potentially the more people who use those kinds of services, now there is some risk, you know, there is a risk of being liquidated, but for the people who do it responsibly at a small amount, it could really reduce the sell pressure going into this, you know, bull run basically.
Yeah, or at least, push the sell pr-pressure to the, the extremes
I think, Unchained Capital is, an awesome business. I think how they're thinking about lending in general is kind of maybe the evolution of where this goes in terms of choosing who your counterparty is and actually like, Making you take responsibility for what the counterparty risk is, 'cause of course, you know, there is counterparty risk. But yeah, I think, I think, the less money you have to pay out to the government, the better. so I, I think lending has been, absolutely incredible for allowing people to, to turn what would have been short-term capital gains into long-term capital gains, and, and for people to be able to, sorry for people to be able to, really preserve their Bitcoin to the be-the best of their ability. And, you know, on the, on the, the lending front, I, you know, I think there's also some interesting-- I'm very interested in this cycle with the IRS, how, how their, how their view of Bitcoin as an asset and how they tax it and treat it is going to change, because there's some topics that DeFi have really, has brought to the surface that they haven't weighed in on that, I think, might kind of shift how some of the lending stuff works at the end of the day. I, I'm also very interested in how the lightning lending market's evolving. we have a Bitcoin fund on the side, UTXO management, and we're always looking for places to get yield with our Bitcoin, and so, the lending market, it's, it's evolved a lot, but there's also a lot of the behind the scenes, if you were to map out the flow of money, there's a lot of shared risk People aren't, appreciating, you know, like, "Oh, I, I'm not using BlockFi, I'm using so-and-so," and it's like, "Okay, well, both BlockFi and so-and-so are using the same fund, behind the scenes, and then that fund is using the same platform," and it's like, "Oh, shit," like honestly, this is way more connected, and I'm sure there will be a "oh, fuck" moment, but, You know, the awesome thing about Bitcoin is there's no, there's no central bank, so, when things blow up, you have to, you have to learn the lesson from them and the market gets better the next go-around. So I, you know, I think, there'll probably be a, a disaster that comes from the lending side, but it'll probably make the entire ecosystem way more robust.
Yeah, it's a short-term pain for long-term gain, I guess. and I guess as, as this ecosystem grows, you know how in the December, right? Like because there's not enough, basically the idea that there's not enough kind of OG people who are enforcing a certain culture, that there's like all these new people coming in. Do you see that happening or do you see it more like, okay, now we've got, you know, we've got Bitcoin Magazine, we've got podcasts, we've got YouTube, we've got all these kind of ways that new people coming in learn the ethos and the values of Bitcoin. What, what's your view on all of that?
Yeah. So this is a, this is a deep question
This is good, this is probably not a good thing to say on a podcast, but I've really come around to the idea of Bitcoin as a religion. And, and I say that because, like, religion uses, symbols and, and effectively what are memes in order to convey ideas that are actually deep intellectual, philosophical, psychological, concepts that your average person just doesn't have the time or the need to completely appreciate in markdown. And so you distill a super con- a, a super complicated idea down to like, "Hold'em," you know? Like, we could go into Austrian economics for like three days or just "Hold'em." And it's like, okay, you know? And like "Hold'em" is like our version of like, you know, "Amen" or something, you know? So, I think that, that it- It's, it, it's a natural progressive, progression for the community to make to, to memefy and to develop a culture that allows our ideas to transfer via osmosis. So like, I, I don't think every person is gonna, it's even realistic to, to think people-- Every person will be a cypherpunk, but I do think it, is realistic for us to imbue, religious importance to cypherpunk concepts and that those will permeate throughout society. because without them, you will be led astray within the ecosystem of which, what is Bitcoin. If you don't hold all, you'll be massively financially punished. If you don't hold your own private keys, then you'll eventually be robbed. Like, it, the, the, the memes are born out of a, of a true realization that people have to appreciate in one way or the other, it's just how deep do they wanna go in actually understanding why they do what they do. and so, yeah, I, I- And that's, that's one of the missions that we have with Bitcoin Magazine and the conference, you, which you just alluded to, it's like we need to take Bitcoin culture and we just need to, shout it from the mountaintops, because otherwise we're going to be living in Groundhog Day where the same lessons get taught over and over and over again, and maybe that's how it has to happen. God, I hope not. I mean, there hasn't been a Mount Gox since Mount Gox, so that does give me some hope that, like- We're getting better, you know? We're getting-
Yeah. I mean, there've been exchange hacks, but just not as big, I guess. Like relative, the relative size of them isn't as, yeah.
Getting smaller, right? It's not eighty-- Fount Box is eighty percent, ninety percent market share, you know what I mean? Can you, if, if you told someone that- That ninety percent of market share of Bitcoin was a Ponzi scheme that was gonna implode and everyone who had money on that platform, you know, fifty percent of users were gonna lose everything they had. You would think that that's just like the definite, definite death of Bitcoin, and it wasn't. That's the just, it's one of those parts of history that I just still can't believe that that's how antifragile our system is. But anyway, that's a, another topic.
Yeah, yeah. I mean, people say, you know, Bitcoin, it just-- How many times have these people, have people come out and said, "Oh, Bitcoin is dead," and, you know, whatever. And that's like now the meme that, you know, even if Bitcoin, you know, pumps like five x and then it drops just a little bit, like the media people come out and are like, "Oh, see, Bitcoin is dead. It is crashed. It is never going back." Well, people, I got
the Tether article that went out, I had a bunch of people message it to me, so I mean, I, I guess it really went viral. And they're like, you know, is Bitcoin pumping for this reason? And could this, could this be the end of Bitcoin? And it's like, I was like, even if it was a Ponzi scheme, and, you know, even if it was ninety percent of trading volume, we'd still be fine, because look at Mt. Gox, it's happened before.
It's all happened before and it's all gonna happen again. So look, David, I think that's probably a good spot to wrap up here. Obviously, before we let you go, where can listeners find you online? Where can they find the conference and where can they find Bitcoin Magazine?
Yeah, so I'm, I'm on a, Twitter strike right now, so you can find me, at Bitcoin Magazine, you can also find the conference, at the Bitcoin Conference. you can check out all of our different, media properties and events and community stuff that we're doing at b dot tc. and, you know, please get involved. Please read Bitcoin, magazine content. If you have a great idea that you don't hear anyone else talking about, please, please write in about doing a contribution. We would love to publish it. And come to the Bitcoin Conference and, and come in full glory, espousing, everything that's fantastic about Bitcoin and, you know, wear it loud and wear it proud, man. I mean, this is-- we are the tip of the spear of a cultural revolution that's happening right now, a true cultural revolution, and, you know, it's, it's the people's money, and it's, it's, it's truly power to the people. So, thank everyone for, for listening to my rants here. thanks for being part of what we're, we're doing. Stephan, thank you for letting me
Seeing everyone in Miami.
Fantastic, thank you. Make sure you get the show notes at stephanlivera dot com slash two five six for this episode. Thanks, and I will see you in the citadels.