Bitcoin is rapidly normalising in all of our minds. A 9 year old has never known a world without Bitcoin. And the longer Bitcoin survives, the more likely it is to continue. This is the Lindy effect, the concept Nassim Taleb popularised:
The Lindy effect is a concept that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.
Notice how we’re seeing it more and more in pop culture.
We’re seeing it in Marvel comics:
and now Marvel is getting in on the cryptocurrency bandwagon.
WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE! pic.twitter.com/lNeOTAu0Cw
— Darren (@RogueDarren) May 9, 2018
We’re seeing it used in modern TV shows, like Billions:
Ledger Nano S featured in the last episode of @SHO_Billions (Billions S03E07) "one million dollars straight in crypto, in cold storage". It was a great suprise for us! Getting more and more mainstream. pic.twitter.com/KYrprYAMSJ
— Ledger (@LedgerHQ) May 7, 2018
We’re even seeing it in school exams:
Dutch high school final exams have questions about Bitcoin! Among others students need to calculate when there will be less than 1 million new Bitcoins left to mine. https://t.co/arr2OIHI1V
— Marc van der Chijs (@chijs) May 15, 2018
What happens as this continues to normalise and people think of using cryptocurrency as a way to and store and transfer money anywhere globally in a low friction, unstoppable way? The feedback loop will be immense once it really kicks off.
I don’t think it will take much to kick this off. Imagine if people started putting 1-5% of their portfolio into Bitcoin? Or if there were a banking crisis and bail-ins, with Bitcoin holders unaffected? Or if a central bank bought in and announced its position in BTC holdings? Or just the continual buying and holding of bitcoin over time, slowly but surely building upwards pressure on the price.
The people who win will be the ones who can buy and wait patiently.